WHY DID MARCOS JR. WIN?
Many who are knowledgeable and objective about the debacle of the Marcos regime—the brutal, murderous repression, the destruction of democratic institutions, the plunder and the resulting economic devastation—unsurprisingly wonder about Marcos Jr.’s successful prosecution of the 2022 elections. Not only did Marcos Jr. win the presidency, his political ally Sara Duterte won the vice-presidency. Any reasonable observer with some measure of ethical persuasion who moreover understands the factual historical record of the Marcos family would naturally oppose and resist their return to power. More so if those who campaigned against their return to power during the 2022 elections had themselves been victims of Marcos rule.
Data from social science research together with astute journalistic analyses offers us a persuasive explanatory account.
begin
Marco Garrido, a sociologist at the University of Chicago, says disinformation campaigns can’t wholly account for why voters have been “so willing to believe these lies.”
Garrido points to a more foundational reason: A “serial disappointment” in the political establishment and democratic rule over the past three decades, which have seen presidential impeachment trials, political protests, corruption and more.
“The faith they had in liberal democracy has dried up … and they’ve developed this taste for illiberal rule over the course of the Duterte administration,” Garrido said. “This nostalgia for the Marcos period wouldn’t make sense unless you put it in the context of 36 years of disappointment.”
end
—Sammy Westfall, “Philippine election: How did Marcos win the presidency?” The Washington Post (May 11, 2022)
begin
At a Social Weather Stations public forum, Dr. Marco Garrido presented tentative findings from nearly 200 interviews, running between one to three hours, conducted with informants from the lower- to the upper-middle class income sectors.
...Garrido reviewed the answers given by anti-Marcos Jr. forces—vote-buying; intimidation; disinformation campaigns waged in the social media space by bots or hired hands; cheating, allegedly through the manipulation of the electronic voting process—and found them unconvincing. No obvious “smoking gun” has surfaced to prove that any of these claims could have produced the Marcos victory. While conceding their cumulative contribution to the outcome, Garrido considered other explanations.
With the Marcos millions, the campaign could deploy additional costly, not flagrantly illegal, and effective stratagems: reenergizing traditional regional/ethnic/linguistic bases; early and heavy investment in historical revisionism to rehabilitate the Marcos brand, including support for Duterte’s presidential campaign to secure the Libingan ng mga Bayani burial of Marcos Sr.; alliances with the established and emergent political dynasties, notably the Macapagal-Arroyo, Villar, and Duterte dynasties; the cultivation of support from established and emergent business “oligarchs”; the selection of Sara Duterte as running mate to ensure the backing of the administration in power.
The Marcos Jr. team contrived a clever campaign, carefully avoiding head-to-head competition with the other contenders, combining the traditional public relations/marketing election propaganda with big data and social media analyses. Garrido’s research surfaced campaign themes that resonated with pro-Duterte/Marcos respondents: the disappointment and discontent of those who had supported Edsa I and had not benefited from the restoration of democracy; despair over the country’s dysfunctional political system that promoted inequality; resignation to the view that politicians were equally opportunistic and corrupt; resentment against the elite stoked by the populist narrative; the appeal, seen worldwide, of the strong leader.
...Understanding and appreciating the logic of his supporters cannot mean indifference to the issues of right and wrong, especially not for those with some concern for the education of future generations. It is not true that all politicians are corrupt, or that the martial law years represented a “golden age” for Filipinos. But how to persuade people that the black they see through their lenses is, objectively, really white?
Fact-checking will not be enough.
end
https://opinion.inquirer.net/159196/how-did-marcos-jr-win#ixzz7oFUl0dUj
—Edilberto C. de Jesus, “How did Marcos Jr. win?” Philippine Daily Inquirer (December 1, 2022)
Basically, Marcos Jr. won on the Ilocos and Mindanao regional votes, assisted by disillusionment with liberal democracy—disillusionment significantly based on the ignorance of the electorate—ignorance of the economic debacle of the Marcos era and of the development gains post-Marcos—in which support for liberal democracy is identified with the Philippine elite. The Marcos Jr. vote is significantly an anti-elite vote, delusively so. There is also a longing for authoritarian rule, born of desperation, in the ignorant belief that a dictatorial regime, even if plundering—all politicians are corrupt, it is erroneously claimed—will result in the economic improvement of the lives of the lower class and poor. A last important factor is the influence of historical landed feudalism, in which the impoverished seek the patronage of the feudal elite and the latter ride on the political support of the poor. It is this social structure and the attendant values and attitudes that animate electoral behavior. It has been described as “cacique democracy.”
We will be forever trapped in a development hole unless the political culture of this country changes.
ReplyDeleteGonzalinho
Too often elective office in the Philippines is sought as a means of personal enrichment. That is the reason why we are a poor and undeveloped country. It’s very difficult to work against this systemically characteristic motivation because the power structure in society supports, propagates, and maintains it. The rich require power and therefore seek it, while the powerful pursue riches illicitly obtained. The political support of the poor is necessary for this purpose, so that the manipulation of the poor becomes a necessary tool of illicit enrichment. It’s a vicious circle that is very difficult to break. It can be done but usually with very limited success and partial results. We just have to keep working at it because the alternative is to throw up our hands in despair.
DeleteGonzalinho
Photo courtesy of Noodlefish
ReplyDeletePhoto link:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/noodlefish/5520785748
Gonzalinho
Most of the Philippine population have never experienced genuine, effective democracy, so they have no idea how it works to their benefit. You have to live in developed Western countries to really understand how a genuine, effective democracy works and how it redounds to the population’s economic benefit.
ReplyDeleteGonzalinho
A known supporter of former Vice President Leni Robredo has addressed the proverbial elephant in the room, one that many opposition supporters have found difficult to acknowledge: that there was no massive fraud that happened in the 2022 presidential elections.
ReplyDeleteFormer Tourism Undersecretary Vicente Romano III said on Thursday, during the launch of his book, “From the Heart: How I Became Social Media Influencer at Age 65” shared that when he acknowledged that Robredo’s presidential bid was over just a day after unofficial results came in, his followers were dismayed.
However, reading a part of his book, he explained that he had been monitoring the conspiracy theories about Robredo getting cheated, noting that all of the points raised by the former vice president’s supporters could be addressed.
Instead, the elections really reflected the choice of the people — as what major polling firms and even their internal surveys had expected.
“Some of my friends and followers were disappointed, even resentful that I gave up so easily. After all there were still some reports of electoral fraud that might yet invalidate the unofficial count […] But I’ve been monitoring the supposed or the reported incidents of fraud and other conspiracy theories moving around in social media, and many of them could be explained […] There simply was no smoking gun evidence that pointed to any large-scale systematic fraud,” he said.
“There might have been massive vote buying, disenfranchisement and other irregularities, more than the usual presidential elections, but I don’t think that it was on a scale that would alter the results. The results — BBM at 58 (percent), VP Leni at 29 (percent), reflected what the surveys of major pollsters […] and even our own internal surveys have been saying,” he added.
…He also noted that attempts to rely on Google Trends as a polling and sampling method was just “trash”.
“BBM was spot on, our numbers may have surged by around five points — the effect perhaps of our last minute house-to-house efforts. Sadly, too little, too late. The false narratives that they have planted in the last decade have taken roots, and it was just impossible to demolish them within the eight-month campaign period,” he claimed.
“Google Trends was simply trash. Bottomline is, it is what it is. The sooner we accept it, the sooner we are able to overcome our grief and plan on improvements,” he added.
To be continued
Continued
DeleteRobredo suffered a massive defeat in the 2022 presidential bid, losing to eventual winner and now President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Official tallies showed that Marcos obtained over 31 million votes, while Robredo only got 15 million.
…The former vice president never conceded, but she told her supporters several times to accept the results of the elections.
During the campaign season, Robredo supporters were optimistic that huge rallies would deliver for them, as they regularly attracted over 100,000 of supporters per grand rally around mid-to-late April.
They also relied heavily on figures from Google Trends, even as polling mainstays Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations indicated an overwhelming Marcos victory. Robredo supporters noted that top searches in Google Trends usually ended up winning an election in other countries.
However, there were several observers, including literary critic Katrina Stuart Santiago, who reminded the opposition that Google Trends are not indicative of voter preference, as they merely show which terms are being searched the most.
Romano said he understands that it may be difficult to accept the results for many, but it is what it is.
“I think most of you will agree na ‘yong isang very difficult to accept was ‘yong disconnect between what was happening in our rallies, and the survey results. Tama ba? Grabe ‘di ba? Ang layo no’ng diperensya, and sometimes a lot of us actually began questioning ‘yong surveys,” he said.
…“But the truth is, again, tama ‘yong surveys eh, ‘yon talaga ‘yong pinapaniwalaan ng mga tao, they were very successful in refurbishing the Marcos image,” he added.
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1672900/leni-supporter-tackles-elephant-in-room-no-massive-fraud-in-2022-polls-surveys-were-just-right
—Gabriel Pabico Lalu, “Robredo supporter tackles elephant in room: No massive fraud in 2022 polls, surveys were just right,” Inquirer.net, September 29, 2022
No smoking gun.
Gonzalinho
Seven months after the May 9 elections, former vice president Leni Robredo addressed the question that her supporters had been asking since she lost the presidential race to Ferdinand Marcos Jr.: Why didn’t she file an electoral protest?
ReplyDeleteSpeaking at a gathering in New York City on Wednesday, December 7, Robredo said it was because her legal team and a group of IT experts didn’t find evidence of cheating. She clarified that this was not to say no cheating took place, it was just that no evidence could be found to substantiate cheating allegations.
Emil Marañon III, one of the election lawyers who worked for Robredo during the May elections, highlighted this in a tweet on Friday, December 9, complementing a video of Robredo explaining why her camp did not protest the election results.
“Finally, you heard it straight from the principal. Trust me, we started with disbelief [about the results] and we are dying to find something to answer the call of the supporters [to protest], but there was none. The numbers checked,” Marañon said.
…In the interview, Robredo instead says she and her team couldn’t find evidence of cheating in the elections.
…Robredo said they did not find evidence of cheating: “We participated in all the third party audits that were conducted, and our lawyers and our computer experts did not see anything. Ayaw po namin na mag-file ng kaso na papaasahin lang kayo (We don’t want to file a case only to keep your hopes up).”
…The former vice president also clarified that she did not say there was no cheating at all, only that they did not find evidence of it.
“Hindi ko po sinasabing walang dayaan na nangyari. Ang sinasabi ko lang, walang nakita. Walang nakita ‘yong ating mga teams,” Robredo explained. (I am not saying there is no cheating that happened. What I am saying is, we did not see anything. Our teams did not see anything.)
https://www.rappler.com/nation/robredo-says-did-not-see-evidence-2022-elections/
—Jairo Bolledo, “Robredo: We did not see evidence of cheating in 2022 elections,” Rappler.com, December 9, 2022
If cheating took place, it was apparently not of sufficient magnitude to change the electoral outcome for president.
Gonzalinho
There are moral aspects to the struggle between autocracy and democracy in the Philippines, indeed, worldwide. An awareness and understanding of this inescapably mortal conflict involves education in democracy vis-à-vis competing systems. Education entails promoting democracy as a preferential moral regime, however imperfect, in contrast to autocracy, while asking us to investigate hybrid alternatives.
ReplyDeleteGonzalinho
Our ballot choices affect our lives, our ability to work, our future, and our children’s futures. Until people realize that and take ownership of those choices, we’re not getting anywhere. Poor choices stem from many factors, but we can’t just put all the blame on the factors.
ReplyDelete@nuelleduterte
Philippine Daily Inquirer, January 10, 2023
Gonzalinho