A GIANT SCAM IN THE MAKING?
Results for the January 2022 SWS and Pulse Asia surveys showed significant gaps in voter preference proportions for Marcos Jr. and for Leni Robredo, respectively.
Marcos Jr. led in both surveys, with 60% voter preference for Pulse Asia and 50% for SWS. The gap is statistically significant at 10%.
The gap for Leni Robredo, smaller at 3%, is not insignificant. SWS’s result was 19%, while Pulse Asia‘s was 16%.
SWS survey:
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The survey periods did not exactly coincide but they were proximate in time. The SWS survey was done from January 28 to 31, while the Pulse Asia survey was conducted from January 19-24.
Days after the official kick-off of political campaigning for national elective positions in the 2022 polls, the latest results of the preference survey conducted by the Social Weather Station showed presidential candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. still dominating the ratings game.
In a press statement, the Marcos camp said the latest SWS commissioned survey from January 28 to 31 showed that the former senator enjoys a firm grip on the top spot and has even gained seven percentage points after increasing his numbers from 43 percent in October 2021 to 50 percent in January 2022.
In second place is Vice President Leni Robredo with 19 percent.
Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso and Senator Manny Pacquiao were tied for 3rd and 4th respectively with 11 percent each, while Senator Panfilo Lacson has 6 percent.
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https://manilastandard.net/news/314206809/marcos-leads-sws-survey-on-presidentiables-at-50.html
—Rey E. Requejo and Macon Ramos-Araneta, “Marcos leads SWS survey on presidentiables at 50%,” manilastandard.net, February 12, 2022
Pulse Asia survey:
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Marcos’ score rose to 60% in the Jan. 19-24 survey from 53% in the Pulse Asia December 2021 survey.
The late dictator's son still holds a wide gap over Vice President Leni Robredo, who is in far second with 16%. She received a lower rating than her 20% tally in the December 2021 survey.
Marcos, a former Ilocos Norte governor and senator, secured the majority of support in all of the country's major island groups, with Mindanao being the highest at 66%.
The survey also showed Marcos receiving majority of support in socioeconomic classes D (61%) and E (56%), but his numbers went down in the C class from 53% in December 2021 to 50% in January 2022.
The Marcos camp said the latest Pulse Asia survey shows the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas standard bearer is way ahead of his opponents.
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—CNN Philippines Staff, “Marcos-Duterte tandem still leading in Pulse Asia survey,” CNN Philippines, February 13, 2022
Three months down the road, questions continue to be raised about the accuracy of the Pulse Asia survey results together with the technical adequacy of their methodology.
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With only four days left until Election Day, some of the country’s top statisticians find themselves at loggerheads and pondering questions on whether survey designs need to be updated to more accurately reflect public sentiment in light of survey results that indicate a victory for Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
Statistics experts like Romulo Virola, former secretary-general of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), and Dr. Peter Cayton of the University of the Philippines, believe that the recent Pulse Asia surveys showing Marcos way ahead of his closest rival, Vice President Leni Robredo, had under- and overrepresented certain sectors.
Both believe that those in Classes A and B as well as the 18-41 age group were underrepresented, while there was an overrepresentation of those in Classes D and E. Virola also believes there was underrepresentation of those who reached college.
Cayton said that over- or underrepresentation meant that the “proportion of sample agents from a survey may be higher or lower than what is typically expected from a larger population.”
Virola clarified that he did not think Pulse Asia used a wrong sampling method, but that the over- and underrepresentation was the result of its post-stratification process, which focused on regional stratifications over sociodemographic group (SDG) profiles.
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—Krixia Subingsubing, “Surveys under scrutiny; Pulse Asia stands by method,” Inquirer.net, May 5, 2022
The multistage cluster sampling design of Pulse Asia assumes high inter-cluster homogeneity, high intra-cluster heterogeneity. This statistical assumption may not have been satisfied during the survey. It is one among several possible reasons why the Pulse Asia output should be considered suspect.
Pulse Asia clusters are geographic area random samples defined at the regional, municipal, and barangay levels.
According to the above article, both Virola and Cayton have suggested that the Pulse Asia samples may have been non-representative.
If inter-cluster homogeneity and intra-cluster heterogeneity of the multistage cluster samples in the Pulse Asia surveys had been low, it would lead to non-representative, inaccurate results.
Doubts about the integrity of the Pulse Asia methodology give rise to the following question: Is the population being primed by a survey firm already covertly compromised to accept electoral results that will be prospectively doctored through electronic cheating?
Granted, electoral survey results for Leni Robredo, the principal challenger to Marcos Jr., have not been favorable to her candidacy. Although several surveys do favor Leni—for example, the April 1-30 Veritas survey—they suffer from technical flaws.
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PRESIDENTIAL aspirant Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo leads the candidates whom voters will choose based on their Catholic values and traditions, according to a survey by a media company run by the Catholic Church.
The Veritas Truth Survey asked respondents which of the presidential aspirants they would vote for based on their “Catholic values and beliefs”. It showed that 48 percent of the 2,400 respondents would vote for Robredo.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. came next at 38 percent, Sen. Panfilo Lacson and Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, 5 percent; Sen. Emmanuel “Manny” Pacquiao at 2 percent while Leodegario “Ka Leody” De Guzman and former Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales each got one percent.
According to Radio Veritas President Father Anton CT Pascual, the purpose of the survey is to measure the pulse of voters based on their Catholic beliefs and faith.
“For the Catholic voters that served as respondents for this survey, it tells us that based on Catholic Values and Beliefs, VP Leni has a significant advantage over former senator Marcos Jr. and that Catholic voters are inclined to vote for her,” said Fr. Pascual.
…Veritas Truth Survey head Bro. Clifford Sorita said that if the response to the survey based on the age of voters who are 40- to 60-years-old is examined, Marcos is slightly outnumbered by Robredo at 45 percent compared to 43 percent.
Despite this, according to Sorita, Robredo leads various age groups. “VP Robredo has more voters in her favor among those ages 18–20 at 42 percent versus 37 percent; ages 21-39 years old at 51 percent versus 35 percent; and 61 years old and above at 77 percent versus 32 percent,” he noted.
Sorita clarified that the survey is not a voting preference but to see what Catholic respondents will prefer based on their beliefs and faith.
The Veritas nationwide survey was conducted from April 1 to April 30 through text and online data gathering.
—Franco Jose C. Baroña, “Leni leads presidential candidates of choice for Catholics in May 9 elections – survey,” The Manila Times, May 4, 2022
Because the Veritas survey asks a leading question to investigate voter preference, survey responses naturally generate biased results.
Based on the above news report, the leading question probably goes something like this:
Who will you vote for president this May 9, 2022, based on your Roman Catholic values and beliefs?
The Veritas survey is also technically flawed because of selection bias in sampling.
Photo courtesy of Patrickroque01
ReplyDeletePhoto link:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BBM-Sara_Uniteam_rally_Arca_South_Bongbong_Marcos_speech_mabuhay_(Taguig;_04-24-2022).jpg
Gonzalinho
A known supporter of former Vice President Leni Robredo has addressed the proverbial elephant in the room, one that many opposition supporters have found difficult to acknowledge: that there was no massive fraud that happened in the 2022 presidential elections.
ReplyDeleteFormer Tourism Undersecretary Vicente Romano III said on Thursday, during the launch of his book, “From the Heart: How I Became Social Media Influencer at Age 65” shared that when he acknowledged that Robredo’s presidential bid was over just a day after unofficial results came in, his followers were dismayed.
However, reading a part of his book, he explained that he had been monitoring the conspiracy theories about Robredo getting cheated, noting that all of the points raised by the former vice president’s supporters could be addressed.
Instead, the elections really reflected the choice of the people — as what major polling firms and even their internal surveys had expected.
“Some of my friends and followers were disappointed, even resentful that I gave up so easily. After all there were still some reports of electoral fraud that might yet invalidate the unofficial count […] But I’ve been monitoring the supposed or the reported incidents of fraud and other conspiracy theories moving around in social media, and many of them could be explained […] There simply was no smoking gun evidence that pointed to any large-scale systematic fraud,” he said.
“There might have been massive vote buying, disenfranchisement and other irregularities, more than the usual presidential elections, but I don’t think that it was on a scale that would alter the results. The results — BBM at 58 (percent), VP Leni at 29 (percent), reflected what the surveys of major pollsters […] and even our own internal surveys have been saying,” he added.
…He also noted that attempts to rely on Google Trends as a polling and sampling method was just “trash”.
“BBM was spot on, our numbers may have surged by around five points — the effect perhaps of our last minute house-to-house efforts. Sadly, too little, too late. The false narratives that they have planted in the last decade have taken roots, and it was just impossible to demolish them within the eight-month campaign period,” he claimed.
“Google Trends was simply trash. Bottomline is, it is what it is. The sooner we accept it, the sooner we are able to overcome our grief and plan on improvements,” he added.
To be continued
Continued
DeleteRobredo suffered a massive defeat in the 2022 presidential bid, losing to eventual winner and now President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Official tallies showed that Marcos obtained over 31 million votes, while Robredo only got 15 million.
…The former vice president never conceded, but she told her supporters several times to accept the results of the elections.
During the campaign season, Robredo supporters were optimistic that huge rallies would deliver for them, as they regularly attracted over 100,000 of supporters per grand rally around mid-to-late April.
They also relied heavily on figures from Google Trends, even as polling mainstays Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations indicated an overwhelming Marcos victory. Robredo supporters noted that top searches in Google Trends usually ended up winning an election in other countries.
However, there were several observers, including literary critic Katrina Stuart Santiago, who reminded the opposition that Google Trends are not indicative of voter preference, as they merely show which terms are being searched the most.
Romano said he understands that it may be difficult to accept the results for many, but it is what it is.
“I think most of you will agree na ‘yong isang very difficult to accept was ‘yong disconnect between what was happening in our rallies, and the survey results. Tama ba? Grabe ‘di ba? Ang layo no’ng diperensya, and sometimes a lot of us actually began questioning ‘yong surveys,” he said.
…“But the truth is, again, tama ‘yong surveys eh, ‘yon talaga ‘yong pinapaniwalaan ng mga tao, they were very successful in refurbishing the Marcos image,” he added.
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1672900/leni-supporter-tackles-elephant-in-room-no-massive-fraud-in-2022-polls-surveys-were-just-right
—Gabriel Pabico Lalu, “Robredo supporter tackles elephant in room: No massive fraud in 2022 polls, surveys were just right,” Inquirer.net, September 29, 2022
No smoking gun.
Gonzalinho
Seven months after the May 9 elections, former vice president Leni Robredo addressed the question that her supporters had been asking since she lost the presidential race to Ferdinand Marcos Jr.: Why didn’t she file an electoral protest?
ReplyDeleteSpeaking at a gathering in New York City on Wednesday, December 7, Robredo said it was because her legal team and a group of IT experts didn’t find evidence of cheating. She clarified that this was not to say no cheating took place, it was just that no evidence could be found to substantiate cheating allegations.
Emil Marañon III, one of the election lawyers who worked for Robredo during the May elections, highlighted this in a tweet on Friday, December 9, complementing a video of Robredo explaining why her camp did not protest the election results.
“Finally, you heard it straight from the principal. Trust me, we started with disbelief [about the results] and we are dying to find something to answer the call of the supporters [to protest], but there was none. The numbers checked,” Marañon said.
…In the interview, Robredo instead says she and her team couldn’t find evidence of cheating in the elections.
…Robredo said they did not find evidence of cheating: “We participated in all the third party audits that were conducted, and our lawyers and our computer experts did not see anything. Ayaw po namin na mag-file ng kaso na papaasahin lang kayo (We don’t want to file a case only to keep your hopes up).”
…The former vice president also clarified that she did not say there was no cheating at all, only that they did not find evidence of it.
“Hindi ko po sinasabing walang dayaan na nangyari. Ang sinasabi ko lang, walang nakita. Walang nakita ‘yong ating mga teams,” Robredo explained. (I am not saying there is no cheating that happened. What I am saying is, we did not see anything. Our teams did not see anything.)
https://www.rappler.com/nation/robredo-says-did-not-see-evidence-2022-elections/
—Jairo Bolledo, “Robredo: We did not see evidence of cheating in 2022 elections,” Rappler.com, December 9, 2022
If cheating took place, it was apparently not of sufficient magnitude to change the electoral outcome for president.
Gonzalinho
THE SMOKING GUN
ReplyDeleteIn their separate judicial affidavits, three petitioners for a writ of mandamus filed before the Supreme Court swore and stated the gist of their petition:
“I hope the Supreme Court will promulgate a politically neutral provisional remedy, as soon as possible, before the 9th of November 2022, directing the Commission on Elections (Comelec) and the telecommunications companies (DITO Telecommunity and Globe Telecom and Smart Communications) to preserve the subscriber and cyber traffic data integrity of the national election results transmitted from 7 p.m. to at least 9 p.m. of May 09, 2022.” This is also in the title of the petition for mandamus filed with the Supreme Court on Nov. 3, 2022.
The petitioners are Augusto Cadelina Lagman, Eliseo Mijares Rio Jr., and Franklin Fayloga Ysaac. Lagman is former chair of election watchdog National Citizens’ Movement for Free Elections and president of Philippine Computer Society. Rio is former Department of Information and Communications Technology secretary. Ysaac is former president of the Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines. In social media, they are called TNTrio.
…I have a copy of the 100-page petition for mandamus, much of which are supporting documents, showing proofs of the petition’s urgency and the “smoking guns.” It also includes a list of letters, pleadings, and affidavits pertinent to the case that show “procedures rendering improbable (almost impossible) transmission of election result within an hour from closing of polls.”
In simple words: How did an avalanche of election results favoring presidential candidate Ferdinand Marcos Jr. get transmitted in so short a time? The “witching hour”—to use Halloween parlance—was 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. of May 9, 2022, but most especially between 7 p.m. and 7:17 p.m. or thereabouts.
…The mandamus petition may look intimidating because of the legalese and technicalese, but it really boils down to this, in the words of lawyer Oswald Magno, forum moderator in Toronto: “The uncanny speed of vote reporting plus the statistically improbable constant vote ratio among the presidential candidates is the smoking gun.”
The petition couldn’t be more direct: “If Comelec cannot show the public that at least 2,000 transmission reports were received electronically that have the date/time stamp between 7:00 pm and 7:17 pm as of May 9, 2022 then the only conclusion that can be derived is that such numbers were preloaded into the transparency and/or Comelec servers.” Preloaded, remember the word.
“We challenge Comelec to demonstrate to the public that all activities required in its General Instructions, including the printing of the election return (ER), can be done in less than 17 minutes before any transmission is made … We further appeal to the poll watchdog Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting to tell the public whether, in their manual count of the printed ERs given to them, they could account for at least 2,000 Transmission Reports of ERs with date/time stamps between 7 p.m. and 7:17 p.m. If none of these can be shown or proven, then the data being shown in the Transparency Server is fraudulent from the very beginning.”
The mandamus petition also showed, through dazzling graphs and charts, how “mathematically, logically, and statistically highly improbable if not impossible” the initial Comelec results were.
https://opinion.inquirer.net/162075/via-crucis-sc-petition-with-smoking-gun#ixzz7xZw1U7CD
—Ma. Ceres P. Doyo, “Via crucis: SC petition with smoking gun,” Philippine Daily Inquirer (March 31, 2023)
We found it—the smoking gun. It’s Marcos’ legacy of massive cheating at elections followed by plunder and political instability, courtesy of Duterte and Marcos Jr.
Gonzalinho