BAD GOVERNANCE UNDER DUTERTE
PHILIPPINES:
‘SICK MAN OF ASIA’ AGAIN?
By:
Richard Heydarian - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine
Daily Inquirer / 04:05 AM August 11, 2020
“Pity the
nation that welcomes its new ruler with trumpetings, and farewells him with
hootings, only to welcome another ruler with trumpetings again,” wrote Kahlil
Gibran, Lebanon’s soulful poet.
Perhaps no
place better captures the tragedy of betrayed hopes and thwarted dreams than
Lebanon, where a self-serving and sectarian oligarchy has destroyed one of the
most beautiful and promising nations on earth.
In the
pulsating prose of Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk, “here is one of the
most educated nations in the region with the most talented and courageous — and
generous and kindliest — of peoples… yet it cannot run its currency, supply its
electric power, cure its sick or protect its people.”
Lebanon’s
wrenching tragedy is eerily familiar. We also have one of the most educated and
talented peoples anywhere in the world, with our diaspora as dynamic and
successful as Lebanon’s. And yet, a brazenly incompetent oligarchy has allowed
the Philippines to suffer both the worst outbreak of COVID-19 and the worst
economic contraction in the region, beating even the giants Indonesia and
China.
Not unlike
Lebanon, which used to be described as the “Switzerland of the Middle East,”
ours was once a regional economic dynamo. In the early 1960s, not long before
dictatorship and decadence ruined our nation, Manila managed to beat the likes
of Seoul and Tehran to host the Asian Development Bank.
Aside from
our superbly talented and hardworking people, the Philippines benefited from a
relatively less vicious form of colonialism than most of our neighbors. In the
half-accurate description of Singapore’s forefather Lee Kuan Yew, “In the 1950s
and 1960s, the [Philippines] was the most developed [in the region], because
America had been generous in rehabilitating the country after the war.”
What Mr.
Lee forgot to mention, however, was the complete devastation of Manila, “The
Pearl of the Orient,” by Gen. Douglas MacArthur’s forces, followed by their
hasty abandonment of the Philippines under the guise of granting us formal
“independence.”
It didn’t
take long before the country got what Manuel Quezon aptly described as a
“government run like hell by Filipinos,” as a distinctly rapacious oligarchy
dominated our state institutions. Instead of mass-based modern political
parties, we ended up with pre-modern political dynasties shamelessly turning
elected office into family conglomerates.
And yet,
despite everything, the Philippines did begin to gradually get its house in
order. While we never had truly “great” leaders, two contemporary presidents
managed to shake off the country’s unfortunate moniker as the “Sick man of
Asia.”
Building
on the democratic struggles of the Cory Aquino administration, which was
hounded by countless coups and the Imeldific debts of the Marcos regime,
President Fidel Ramos initiated a series of political and economic reforms that
ended more than a decade of crises. His hopes to transform the Philippines into
the latest member of the “Asian tigers,” however, was thwarted by a toxic
mélange of internal and external shocks, namely an incompetent populist
successor combined with the Asian financial crisis.
More than
a decade later, we managed to claw our way back to a measure of stability and
prosperity. Building on the macroeconomic reforms of its predecessor, the
Benigno Aquino III administration oversaw a series of indispensable (though far
from perfect) reforms, which brought about one of the fastest economic growth
rates in the world.
By 2013, the World Bank was describing the Philippines as “Asia’s rising tiger.” No longer the “Sick man of Asia,” the
Philippines had joined the ranks of
what emerging markets guru Ruchir Sharma termed as “breakout nations,” with the most promising economies on earth.
However,
as Sharma, the chief global strategist of Morgan Stanley, warned, a country can sustain long-term growth if
and only if it builds strong institutions and regularly produces competent
leaders who can provide new sets of policy innovations at each stage of
national development. “What [emerging markets’] experiences underscore is that
political cycles are as important to a nation’s prospects as economic ones,” he
said.
Not unlike
Ramos’ tragedy, the Aquino III-era gains seem to have also suffered from the
twin shocks of a populist successor and a global crisis.
What we need is a world-class leader who can
appreciate the scale and complexity of 21st-century governance, especially in times of
unprecedented crisis. Instead, what we
got was a “mayor-president.”
“Good
governance is hard to find.”
“There is
no economy. There is only political economy.”
Public domain photo
ReplyDeletePhoto link:
https://www.piqsels.com/en/public-domain-photo-foaop
Gonzalinho
PH DEBT TO BREACH P10 TRILLION IN 2020, NEARLY p12 TRILLION IN 2021
ReplyDeleteBy: Ben O. de Vera - Reporter / @bendeveraINQ
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 01:53 PM August 26, 2020
MANILA, Philippines — As the government borrows more to respond to the health and socioeconomic crises inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic, its outstanding debt will balloon to breach the P10-trillion mark by yearend.
Documents from the proposed P4.5-trillion 2021 national budget showed that the national government’s outstanding debt will increase to P10.16 trillion by end-2020 from P7.73 trillion in 2019.
…Based on earlier Development Budget Coordination Committee projections, the jump in borrowings during the next two years will pull the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) — the ratio reflecting the ability to settle obligations — up to 53.9 percent by yearend and 58.3 percent in 2021 from 39.6 percent in 2019.
The last time the Philippines had a debt-to-GDP above 50 percent was 50.2 percent in 2010.
If attained, the projected debt-to-GDP ratios in 2020 and 2021 would be the highest since the 58.8 percent recorded in 2006.
Read more: https://business.inquirer.net/305953/ph-debt-to-breach-p10-trillion-in-2020-nearly-p12-trillion-in-2021#ixzz6qOuxKTrj
Question: Do you trust the government? Answer: No.
Gonzalinho
Pope’s Monthly Prayer Intentions
ReplyDeleteApostleship of Prayer
April 2021
Fundamental rights
We pray for those who risk their lives while fighting for fundamental rights under dictatorships, authoritarian regimes and even in democracies in crisis.
Link: http://popesprayerusa.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/INTENZIONI-DEL-PAPA-2021-ENG-DEF.pdf
Gonzalinho
GOVERNMENT BORROWINGS HIT P1.86 TRILLION IN 7 MONTHS
ReplyDeleteBy: Ben O. de Vera - Reporter / @bendeveraINQ
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 04:05 AM September 07, 2020
MANILA, Philippines — The government borrowed from local and foreign sources P1.86 trillion from January to July, a level nearly equivalent to total borrowings for the past two years.
As the government borrows more in the near-term to fight COVID-19 and revive the economy from a pandemic-induced recession, President Duterte in 2022 will leave behind a record P13.7 trillion in debt, whose share to gross domestic product (GDP) by that time will be the highest in 17 years.
…As 2021 budget documents had shown, these borrowings will jack up the Philippines’ outstanding debt to new highs of P10.16 trillion by yearend and P11.98 trillion next year.
As for the debt-to-GDP—the ratio reflecting the ability to pay obligations, Dominguez said these would rise to 53.9 percent by end-2020, 58.1 percent in 2021 and 59.9 percent in 2022.
This means that in 2022, the debt-to-GDP ratio will hit a 17-year high, the most elevated rate since 2005’s 65.7 percent.
Read more: https://business.inquirer.net/306759/govt-borrowings-hit-p-1-86t-in-7-months#ixzz6tgIG0Ath
Humongous debt—without the benefits showing in economic performance
Gonzalinho
The Philippines is not a poor country but a poorly managed country.
ReplyDelete@YOLOinthePH
Philippine Daily Inquirer (September 8, 2020)
Says it all
Gonzalinho
WHERE IS TRANSPARENCY IN GOVERNMENT METRICS?
ReplyDeleteBy: Solita Collas-Monsod - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:06 AM September 12, 2020
As I reported to you earlier, Reader, the Philippine Development Plan 2017-22, whose priorities admittedly (by President Duterte himself in its foreword) were guided by his 0+10 point Socio-Economic Agenda, has an accompanying Results Matrix.
…You would be impressed if you read the PDP, Reader. It has overall goals and targets, and then it has 16 sectors/chapters, classified under three “Pillars”—Malasakit, Pagbabago, and Patuloy na Pagunlad—together with an enabling and supportive economic environment and built upon strong foundations for sustainable development.
Under enhancing the social fabric (“Malasakit”), there is governance, administration of justice, and Philippine culture and values. Under inequality-reducing transformation (“Pagbabago”) are included agriculture, industry and services, human capital development, social protection, and shelter/housing. Under increasing growth potential (“Patuloy na Pagunlad”) are the demographic dividend and science, technology, and innovation. All with separate chapters.
That’s not all: Under an enabling and supportive economic environment are sound macroeconomic policy and national competitiveness. And under foundations for sustainable development are included a just and lasting peace, security, public order and safety, infrastructure development, and environment.
…All of them, except for two chapters, have separate targets contained in the Results Matrix that accompanies the Plan.
…the two sectors which have no published targets are Ch. 17, “A Just and Lasting Peace,” and Ch. 18, “Ensuring Security, Public Order, and Safety.” The reason given for this lapse is that these involve issues of national security (!), so presumably only the military, the Philippine National Police, and President Duterte can be in the loop. I kid you not, Reader. That’s the reason given. And yet, these two chapters, per the PDP, “constitute the bedrock of the 0+10 Socioeconomic Agenda of the administration.”
Which naturally leads to the next question: If it is the bedrock, and if we don’t know how strong that bedrock is, how can the administration claim any success at all, without any metric to measure it against? Where is transparency?
…And the PNP now has a proposed budget of P196 billion. How can we be sure its performance on criminality and drugs is improved if it refuses to share with us the measures of its success or failure, on the grounds of national security? Are we throwing good money after bad?
solita_monsod@yahoo.com
Read more: https://opinion.inquirer.net/133509/where-is-transparency-in-govt-metrics#ixzz6tgBOPbb3
That’s the purpose of not specifying either the budget or the performance metrics—to preclude transparency.
When there is no transparency, you can do whatever you want with humongous amounts of money without ever having to account for it.
Gonzalinho
‘STRONG’ PESO, WEAK ECONOMY
ReplyDeleteBy: Cielito F. Habito - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 04:06 AM September 22, 2020
…the economist in me knows that a currency rising in value yields both winners and losers. I studiously avoid using the words “strong” or “strengthening” for the appreciating peso, or describing it as “outperforming” other currencies, because of the misleading notion these convey. A falling peso-dollar exchange rate is both good news and bad, depending on who is affected. In our case, it’s probably even more bad news than good, hence nothing to be glad about. Let’s see why.
Why is the peso price of a dollar falling, now close to P48? It’s the basic law of supply and demand at work: Price goes down when at any given price, supply increases, or demand decreases, or both — and vice versa.
…our exports have been falling steeply since March. Foreign tourism is all but dead since the COVID-19 pandemic began, and foreign direct investments have slid for the fourth year in a row. Foreign portfolio investments (“hot” money) have been on a net outflow since last year, intensifying in recent months. While OFW remittances started rising again in June and July, it is still down 2.4 percent over the first seven months of the year due to three months of successive decline before that. Meanwhile, the government is reportedly poised to borrow around $16 billion in foreign-denominated debt this year, with at least $4 billion already in.
Even as supplies of dollars flowing into the country have fallen, demand has fallen even more. The demand comes mainly from importers, and Filipinos who wish to travel or invest abroad. Our imports actually fell by 28.1 percent this year so far, far outstripping the 16.4-percent drop in exports. What makes this bad news is that much of our imports are actually inputs to production: raw materials and intermediate goods, capital equipment, and fuels, all together making up more than four-fifths of the total. The steep drop thus signals that production in the months ahead will also drop correspondingly. Meanwhile, with foreign travel at a near-standstill, there is hardly any demand for dollars by outbound Filipino tourists, and investments abroad by Filipinos are also likely on hold, with declines in percentage terms likely to approach 100 percent.
The supply and demand story thus easily explains why the dollar is getting cheaper lately in terms of pesos — and it’s more due to weak demand in a depressed economy.
…In the end, then, the losers are our job-hungry workers, especially at this time when jobs have been drying up. Add to that the OFWs’ families, whose remittances convert into fewer pesos than before — in turn affecting the producers of the goods and services they can now buy less of.
And that’s why I’d rather not describe it as a “strengthening” or “well-performing” peso, when what actually comes with it is a weaker economy.
cielito.habito@gmail.com
Read more: https://opinion.inquirer.net/133805/strong-peso-weak-economy#ixzz6whtazaRN
You can blame Covid all you want for the weak economy, but you can’t get away from the bad governance under Duterte, which makes the economy worse than it would have otherwise been.
Gonzalinho
FACT: THE GOV’T HAS DONE A LOUSY JOB
ReplyDeleteBy: Solita Collas-Monsod - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:06 AM September 19, 2020
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) just came out with growth forecasts for the region as well as member countries. Developing Asia is to contract by 0.7 percent this year, and Developing Asia without the newly industrialized economies will contract by 0.5 percent. The Philippines will contract by 7.3 percent, and Thailand will contract by 8 percent.
… in its latest forecast, the ADB expects the country to contract by 7.3 percent, much deeper than the Southeast Asian average of 3.8 percent. If we actually contract as much as predicted, the question now is: How did the Philippines deteriorate from being the fourth best performing country in 2019 to the second to the worst performing country in 2020?
Studies have shown that the major factor that accounts for differences in growth performance between countries is government policies and institutions (accounting for 70-79 percent of differentials—initial conditions, natural resources and geography, and demography account for the rest).
Conclusion: We should never have contracted as badly as we did. Who is responsible for this? Without a doubt, the Duterte administration.
…Reader, you can see why President Duterte and his administration stumbled so badly: Instead of concentrating on the problem at hand, there were too many distractions—it had to destroy ABS-CBN, it had to pass an anti-terrorism bill, it had to try to establish a revolutionary government, it had to protect the Chinese government, it had to conceal the problems regarding the President’s health from the people.
And who suffers for this? Let me remind you, Reader. It is the middle class and the poor. That’s at least 90 percent of our population.
solita_monsod@yahoo.com
Read more: https://opinion.inquirer.net/133707/fact-the-govt-has-done-a-lousy-job#ixzz6wipTorET
What else do you expect when you put in power a murderer…liar…thief…who acts without remorse and only in his own selfish interests…
Gonzalinho